In hopes that we are emerging to normalcy in the world, at least as far as hockey is concerned (since this is a hockey site), it's a good time to revisit the NCAA Division II/III advancement data from 2019-20 -- when it last mattered.
The Junior Hockey Hub examines NCAA Division II/III advancement data only. That means every December I look at NCAA freshmen on official rosters and determine from what team/program they matriculated. The Hub does not look at "commitment" information at this level because it is not stable enough to draw solid conclusions.
Without a National Letter of Intent (NIL) as the ultimate deal-closer, a Division II/III commitment will never turn into a binding agreement. Not all organizations, and certainly not all players, have the same level of follow-through on these commitments (e.g. the student-athlete actually enrolling in school and showing up on a roster). Furthermore, many Division II/III teams have old-fashioned tryouts. A player could be recruited and show up at school out of shape and simply not added to the roster, for example. Some organizations announce a commitment if a player is simply accepted by the school in question.
Therefore the Junior Hockey Hub only concerns itself with advancement data, which is irrefutable.
During the last full season of Division II/III hockey in 2019-20, the United States Premier Hockey League (USPHL) Premier Division had just secured its first "title" with 120 direct advancements. The Premier Division knocked off the longtime King of the Hill Eastern Hockey League (EHL) for this title. The EHL came in with 113 that season.
As with all stats, however, they need to be further examined to tell the real picture. The EHL was the clear leader in overall performance as it averaged 6.28 advancements per team, compared to a only 2.35 per Premier Division team. The tuition-free National Collegiate Development Conference (NCDC) was actually in second place with 5.58 advancement per team, followed by USA Hockey Tier II North American Hockey League in third with 4.0. The Premier Division was fourth and the NA3HL rounded out the top five with 1.55 advancements per team.
Back in 2015 the EHL was responsible for 140 advancements, which was 28 percent of all incoming NCAA Division II/III freshmen. That was a pretty stunning number. It isn't that the EHL has suddenly faltered in its performance or mission, it's that other leagues -- chiefly the USPHL Premier Division -- have stepped up their game in terms of placement.
The fact the Premier Division has continued to make gains while the USPHL launched the tuition-free NCDC is a testament to the operators who are really working at it.
The perennial leader in advancement is any team that is coached by Chris Cerrella. He is the head coach of the EHL's New Hampshire Avalanche, and was formerly the head coach of the EHL's now-defunct Hartford Jr. Wolfpack. In 2019-20 Cerrella's squad advanced 13 players directly to college to lead the country yet again.
The Northern Cyclones Premier team and the New Hampshire Monarchs NDCD team -- both USPHL-but-former-EHL organizations -- were tied for second with 11 advancements. Also with 11 and rounding out the four-way tie were the EHL's Philadelphia Revolution and the USPHL Premier's Hampton Roads Whalers.
By comparison, the leading NA3HL teams had five advancements. There were multiple teams with this number, but five is a far cry from double digits when it comes to college placement.
A lot of this has to do with living where the food is. The majority of the NCAA Division II/III teams are within a two-hour drive of Boston, Mass. Starting about six years ago many Midwestern Division III teams started showing up at Eastern Hockey League showcases in great numbers and recruiting directly from that league. The players in the East, by nature, are willing to travel and commit to college hockey without prejudice toward geography. They'll be student-athletes almost anywhere, but most importantly they have the resources to (a) pay Tier III fees for two or three post-high school year and (b) pay out-of-state or private school tuition or qualify for academic scholarships, which makes them open to almost any opportunity.
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